講者：Ahyee lee
日期：2021-05-22
觀看: 855
  • 00:00 1.
    Lecture 10Simple Forecast Techniques
  • 00:36 2.
    Simple Time Series Forecast
  • 10:51 3.
    Example 10-1: Quarterly Sales of Toy
  • 14:05 4.
    Extract Seasonal Factor
  • 20:27 5.
    Example 10-1: Quarterly Sales of Toy
  • 20:29 6.
    Simple Time Series Forecast
  • 20:50 7.
    Example 10-1: Quarterly Sales of Toy
  • 20:50 8.
    Extract Seasonal Factor
  • 21:52 9.
    Extract Seasonal Factor
  • 22:08 10.
    Extract Seasonal Factor
  • 23:31 11.
    Extract Seasonal Factor
  • 29:03 12.
    Extracting Trend by Regression
  • 29:33 13.
    Extract Seasonal Factor
  • 29:33 14.
    Extract Seasonal Factor
  • 29:34 15.
    Example 10-1: Quarterly Sales of Toy
  • 29:46 16.
    Extract Seasonal Factor
  • 29:47 17.
    Extract Seasonal Factor
  • 29:53 18.
    Extracting Trend by Regression
  • 30:47 19.
    Extract Seasonal Factor
  • 30:48 20.
    Extract Seasonal Factor
  • 30:48 21.
    Example 10-1: Quarterly Sales of Toy
  • 31:04 22.
    Extract Seasonal Factor
  • 31:05 23.
    Extract Seasonal Factor
  • 31:05 24.
    Extracting Trend by Regression
  • 31:07 25.
    Trend Forecast
  • 32:16 26.
    Forecast of Toy Sales
  • 32:16 27.
    Alternative Trends
  • 32:17 28.
    Forecast of Toy Sales
  • 36:08 29.
    Alternative Trends
  • 42:53 30.
    Exponential Smoothing Method
  • 45:18 31.
    Exponential Smoothing Method: no trend, no seasonal factor
  • 45:34 32.
    Exponential Smoothing Method: No Trend, No Seasonal Factors
  • 46:05 33.
    Exponential Smoothing Method: no trend, no seasonal factor
  • 54:56 34.
    Exponential Smoothing Method: No Trend, No Seasonal Factors
  • 57:43 35.
    Exponential Smoothing Method: no trend, no seasonal factor
  • 59:25 36.
    Exponential Smoothing Method: No Trend, No Seasonal Factors
  • 59:32 37.
    Holt-Winters Linear Trend Forecast
  • 59:34 38.
    Exponential Smoothing Method: No Trend, No Seasonal Factors
  • 59:57 39.
    Holt-Winters Linear Trend Forecast
  • 1:00:03 40.
    Exponential Smoothing Method: No Trend, No Seasonal Factors
  • 1:00:04 41.
    Exponential Smoothing Method: no trend, no seasonal factor
  • 1:00:19 42.
    Exponential Smoothing Method: No Trend, No Seasonal Factors
  • 1:01:49 43.
    Holt-Winters Linear Trend Forecast
  • 1:01:51 44.
    Exponential Smoothing Method: No Trend, No Seasonal Factors
  • 1:02:53 45.
    Holt-Winters Linear Trend Forecast
  • 1:02:55 46.
    Exponential Smoothing Method: No Trend, No Seasonal Factors
  • 1:05:00 47.
    Holt-Winters Linear Trend Forecast
  • 1:05:52 48.
    Exponential Smoothing Method: No Trend, No Seasonal Factors
  • 1:05:53 49.
    Exponential Smoothing Method: no trend, no seasonal factor
  • 1:07:58 50.
    Exponential Smoothing Method: No Trend, No Seasonal Factors
  • 1:07:59 51.
    Holt-Winters Linear Trend Forecast
  • 1:14:41 52.
    Holt Winters Linear Trend
  • 1:14:43 53.
    Holt-Winters Linear Trend Forecast
  • 1:17:35 54.
    Holt Winters Linear Trend
  • 1:17:36 55.
    Holt-Winters Linear Trend Forecast
  • 1:19:35 56.
    Holt Winters Linear Trend
  • 1:19:36 57.
    Holt Winters Forecast with Additive Seasonal Factor
  • 1:19:39 58.
    Holt Winters Linear Trend
  • 1:19:39 59.
    Holt-Winters Linear Trend Forecast
  • 1:23:04 60.
    Holt Winters Forecast with Additive Seasonal Factor
  • 1:23:56 61.
    Holt Winters Forecast with Additive Seasonal Factor
  • 1:23:57 62.
    Holt Winters Forecast with Additive Seasonal Factor
  • 1:23:58 63.
    Example 10-5: Multiplicative Seasonal Factors
  • 1:24:00 64.
    Holt Winters Forecast with Additive Seasonal Factor
  • 1:24:00 65.
    Slide 20
  • 1:24:01 66.
    Holt Winters Forecast with Additive Seasonal Factor
  • 1:24:03 67.
    Example 10-5: Multiplicative Seasonal Factors
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stat-lecture 10-A
長度: 1:24:04, 瀏覽: 856, 最近修訂: 2021-05-22
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    • 00:00 1.
      Lecture 10Simple Forecast Techniques
    • 00:36 2.
      Simple Time Series Forecast
    • 10:51 3.
      Example 10-1: Quarterly Sales of Toy
    • 14:05 4.
      Extract Seasonal Factor
    • 20:27 5.
      Example 10-1: Quarterly Sales of Toy
    • 20:29 6.
      Simple Time Series Forecast
    • 20:50 7.
      Example 10-1: Quarterly Sales of Toy
    • 20:50 8.
      Extract Seasonal Factor
    • 21:52 9.
      Extract Seasonal Factor
    • 22:08 10.
      Extract Seasonal Factor
    • 23:31 11.
      Extract Seasonal Factor
    • 29:03 12.
      Extracting Trend by Regression
    • 29:33 13.
      Extract Seasonal Factor
    • 29:33 14.
      Extract Seasonal Factor
    • 29:34 15.
      Example 10-1: Quarterly Sales of Toy
    • 29:46 16.
      Extract Seasonal Factor
    • 29:47 17.
      Extract Seasonal Factor
    • 29:53 18.
      Extracting Trend by Regression
    • 30:47 19.
      Extract Seasonal Factor
    • 30:48 20.
      Extract Seasonal Factor
    • 30:48 21.
      Example 10-1: Quarterly Sales of Toy
    • 31:04 22.
      Extract Seasonal Factor
    • 31:05 23.
      Extract Seasonal Factor
    • 31:05 24.
      Extracting Trend by Regression
    • 31:07 25.
      Trend Forecast
    • 32:16 26.
      Forecast of Toy Sales
    • 32:16 27.
      Alternative Trends
    • 32:17 28.
      Forecast of Toy Sales
    • 36:08 29.
      Alternative Trends
    • 42:53 30.
      Exponential Smoothing Method
    • 45:18 31.
      Exponential Smoothing Method: no trend, no seasonal factor
    • 45:34 32.
      Exponential Smoothing Method: No Trend, No Seasonal Factors
    • 46:05 33.
      Exponential Smoothing Method: no trend, no seasonal factor
    • 54:56 34.
      Exponential Smoothing Method: No Trend, No Seasonal Factors
    • 57:43 35.
      Exponential Smoothing Method: no trend, no seasonal factor
    • 59:25 36.
      Exponential Smoothing Method: No Trend, No Seasonal Factors
    • 59:32 37.
      Holt-Winters Linear Trend Forecast
    • 59:34 38.
      Exponential Smoothing Method: No Trend, No Seasonal Factors
    • 59:57 39.
      Holt-Winters Linear Trend Forecast
    • 1:00:03 40.
      Exponential Smoothing Method: No Trend, No Seasonal Factors
    • 1:00:04 41.
      Exponential Smoothing Method: no trend, no seasonal factor
    • 1:00:19 42.
      Exponential Smoothing Method: No Trend, No Seasonal Factors
    • 1:01:49 43.
      Holt-Winters Linear Trend Forecast
    • 1:01:51 44.
      Exponential Smoothing Method: No Trend, No Seasonal Factors
    • 1:02:53 45.
      Holt-Winters Linear Trend Forecast
    • 1:02:55 46.
      Exponential Smoothing Method: No Trend, No Seasonal Factors
    • 1:05:00 47.
      Holt-Winters Linear Trend Forecast
    • 1:05:52 48.
      Exponential Smoothing Method: No Trend, No Seasonal Factors
    • 1:05:53 49.
      Exponential Smoothing Method: no trend, no seasonal factor
    • 1:07:58 50.
      Exponential Smoothing Method: No Trend, No Seasonal Factors
    • 1:07:59 51.
      Holt-Winters Linear Trend Forecast
    • 1:14:41 52.
      Holt Winters Linear Trend
    • 1:14:43 53.
      Holt-Winters Linear Trend Forecast
    • 1:17:35 54.
      Holt Winters Linear Trend
    • 1:17:36 55.
      Holt-Winters Linear Trend Forecast
    • 1:19:35 56.
      Holt Winters Linear Trend
    • 1:19:36 57.
      Holt Winters Forecast with Additive Seasonal Factor
    • 1:19:39 58.
      Holt Winters Linear Trend
    • 1:19:39 59.
      Holt-Winters Linear Trend Forecast
    • 1:23:04 60.
      Holt Winters Forecast with Additive Seasonal Factor
    • 1:23:56 61.
      Holt Winters Forecast with Additive Seasonal Factor
    • 1:23:57 62.
      Holt Winters Forecast with Additive Seasonal Factor
    • 1:23:58 63.
      Example 10-5: Multiplicative Seasonal Factors
    • 1:24:00 64.
      Holt Winters Forecast with Additive Seasonal Factor
    • 1:24:00 65.
      Slide 20
    • 1:24:01 66.
      Holt Winters Forecast with Additive Seasonal Factor
    • 1:24:03 67.
      Example 10-5: Multiplicative Seasonal Factors
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